If I had been born in Norway in the 1850s my life expectancy at birth would have been about 47 years. In 1965, when I was born, my life expectancy was about 71 years. A boy born today is expected to live for 78 year. Today, at 43 years old, my life expectancy is 79 - and growing. It is growing due to two factors. First the fact that I survive another year obviously removes the probability that I die during that year and so increases my life expectancy. Should I reach 79 years my life expectancy will in fact be over 86 years! Second the population is getting healthier and health care is getting better so people are living longer year by year.
In the world as a whole life expectancy at birth is now 65 years. The UN expects this to increase to 76 years in 2050.
Throughout time there has been different factors with huge impact on life expectancy. Around 100 years ago the general improvements in social welfare did the trick. The probability of surviving the first year after birth is commonly used as an indicator for the level of welfare and social development in a country. In the 1850s over 10% of all newly born died without reaching their first birthday. Today this figure is about 0,3%. Better nutrition, less infections and generally better knowledge and general health care explain this trend.
In some periods the death tolls of infectious diseases have played a major role. After WW2 there was a big rise in heart diseases. Today it is cancer that is the major factor removing years from peoples life spans. In principle the fight against infections has been (temporarily?) won. Heart diseases is largely becoming an age correlated problem. But cancer is a growing concern. And this is probably the area where we will see the next big improvement.
The rate of increase in life expectancy now seems to be decreasing in Norway. But this may be only temporary. Almost daily the scientists report breakthroughs in cancer related research. I'm keeping a keen eye on nanotechnology, bioengineering and medical research, and what I see is truly amazing. In the next ten years I think we will have a much clearer picture of what can be achieved in this area in the short to medium term. In the long run I think cancer can be ruled out as a major contributor to death much like we have done with infections. I would certainly like to live to see that.
In the world as a whole life expectancy at birth is now 65 years. The UN expects this to increase to 76 years in 2050.
Throughout time there has been different factors with huge impact on life expectancy. Around 100 years ago the general improvements in social welfare did the trick. The probability of surviving the first year after birth is commonly used as an indicator for the level of welfare and social development in a country. In the 1850s over 10% of all newly born died without reaching their first birthday. Today this figure is about 0,3%. Better nutrition, less infections and generally better knowledge and general health care explain this trend.
In some periods the death tolls of infectious diseases have played a major role. After WW2 there was a big rise in heart diseases. Today it is cancer that is the major factor removing years from peoples life spans. In principle the fight against infections has been (temporarily?) won. Heart diseases is largely becoming an age correlated problem. But cancer is a growing concern. And this is probably the area where we will see the next big improvement.
The rate of increase in life expectancy now seems to be decreasing in Norway. But this may be only temporary. Almost daily the scientists report breakthroughs in cancer related research. I'm keeping a keen eye on nanotechnology, bioengineering and medical research, and what I see is truly amazing. In the next ten years I think we will have a much clearer picture of what can be achieved in this area in the short to medium term. In the long run I think cancer can be ruled out as a major contributor to death much like we have done with infections. I would certainly like to live to see that.
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